Google Instant – Premature eSearchalation?

September 9, 2010
by Lloyd Cooke

How will Google Instant Impact Search?

So there has been massive hype about Google Instant over the past 24 hours with numerous theories being crafted on how it will impact the search landscape.

Similar to other “Google Refinements” in the past we will not know what the real impacts are (if any?) until we start seeing empirical evidence through campaigns and data studies. For example we did not know to what extent PPC site links would have on organic brand search CTR and conversion until we had the evidence running over a period of time to obtain a trusted data sample.

So what search related factors could become apparent through the introduction of Google Instant? Here are a few theories / ideas / premonitions, (call them what you will) of how Google Instant could impact search as we know it.

CTR Bias in the top results on page 1

The web searcher has always been labelled as being inherently lazy. Google instant may lead to less people hitting enter to display a full results page and in turn result in more people clicking on the first 4 or 5 results that they can see on their screen. One barrier to proving this theory is that a post Google Instant CTR study may be difficult to conduct with impression data being skewed in the Google Webmaster Tools CTR analysis with Google stating themselves that “With Google Instant, you may notice an increase in impressions because your site will appear in search results as users type”.

Accurate Google CTR data is hard to come by with no real trusted data being available since 2006 when the AOL CTR data was leaked, which was also pre-universal search. Another factor for CTR and Google Instant maybe the screen size and the medium through which search is being performed because the smaller the screen, the less search results there are displayed beneath the Google instant search box.

One Search Page instead of many search engine results pages

There are many studies and countless statistics that float round stating that web searchers don’t go past the 3^rd page and this may have even shortened to the second and even first page as search engine interfaces have evolved and in particular the Google interface. Will Google Instant lead to more people just refining their search rather than being prepared to trawl through numerous pages?

The impact on long tail search

Will the amount of long tail searches decrease due to more users finding the results they require from the results that appear when they start typing their first word? This could favour the brands ranking in the top 3 for key generics and could also increase the intensity of SEO competition for lucrative generic terms in the top 5 of the search results.

Will Google Instant have the opposite effect and more people use the greyed out Google Suggest style terms which may increase long tail search?

Further Impact on PPC brand search

We have seen brand search influenced by Google refinements such as PPC site links however will the sponsored results appear more prominent in the way Google Instant displays its results? I’m sure Google hopes so!

Increase in Google searches

With more searches being made Google can now boast even more searches through its search engine and would result in a higher percentage of searches on the web. One for the Google marketing pack perhaps!

Impact on Google Account Signups

If web users take a shine to Google Instant then will this result in an increase in Google Accounts? Due to Google Instant only being available via a signed in Google Account this trend could happen if popularity increases. Would this allow Google to gain more search data if this scenario unfolds?

The future of Google Instant?

Will Google instant be a fad in the long line of Google search rollouts? Or will it change how users search on the web forever? Only time will tell..

Perhap it’s just the search community who are sitting up and taking note at present and search impacts will only be affected in the microcosm that is the online marketing industry. With one current estimate of UK users affected listed at 2.1%, maybe Joe public will not bat an eyelid, keeping along the lines of “I like to keep my searches simple thank you very much!”

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