Can Google Trends Predict the Oscars This Weekend?

We love looking at Google Trends data.

Last year, we analysed whether or not the Miley Cyrus song Malibu impacted the interest in ‘Malibu Holidays’.

In short, it did (we reckon).

We did the same for one of the year’s biggest hits – Despacito – but the results were a little less conclusive.

Now, we’re moving into the movie business.

The Academy Awards are due to take place this weekend, with all the glitz and glamour that you would expect at a major Hollywood event.

But forget about the celebrity of it all – we’re interested in who’s going to be taking an Oscar home.

It is at this point we turn to Google Trends.

Does worldwide interest in a nominee suggest a greater chance of awards success? Let’s find out.

We’ll compare the top Google Trend in each category, to who we reckon will probably come out on top.

Starting with…

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Google Trends predicts Margot Robbie.

We think its going to be Frances McDormand.

Despite Margot Robbie’s global popularity, we can’t see past the formidable Frances McDormand for this one.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Google Trends predicts Timothée Chalamet.

We think its going to be Gary Oldman.

There’s no doubt that Timothée Chalamet is the rising star of this year’s awards season, but veteran Gary Oldman is likely to walk away winner here.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Google Trends predicts Mary J. Blige.

We think its going to be Allison Janney.

The music career of Mary J. Blige is probably skewing the data a little. Allison Janney is the heavy favourite in this race.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Google Trends predicts Sam Rockwell.

We think its going to be Sam Rockwell.

Sam Rockwell, armed with a recent win at the BAFTAs, just edges higher than his competitors – including his co-star Woody Harrelson.

Best Achievement in Directing

Google Trends predicts Guillermo del Toro.

We think its going to be Guillermo del Toro.

Another category in which we agree with Google. Guillermo del Toro has already bagged a few wins this year, and we reckon this will be another night of celebration for the Mexican director.

Best Original Screenplay

Google Trends predicts Guillermo del Toro.

We think its going to be Martin McDonagh.

Whilst Guillermo del Toro may take the award for directing, we’re anticipating ‘Three Billboards’ scribe Martin McDonagh to win here.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Google Trends predicts Aaron Sorkin.

We think its going to be James Ivory.

If ‘Call Me by Your Name’ takes home anything, it will be the accolade for Best Adapted Screenplay. This is James Ivory’s fourth Oscar nomination, but only his first for writing.

Best Animated Feature Film

Google Trends predicts Coco.

We think its going to be Coco.

No disagreements here. 'Coco' was both critically acclaimed and a commercial success, and will comfortably sweep this prize.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Google Trends predicts The Shape of Water.

We think its going to be Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

The biggest prize of the night is also the one we’re least certain about. It’s definitely between ‘The Shape of Water’ and ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’, but we’ll have to wait and see who comes out on top.

So, what do you reckon? Have we got it right? Or will Google's data prove to show to correlation with the winners?

We'll update with the results on Monday, following the ceremony.

A couple of things to mention...

All the search trends data was taken over a seven day period, from February 19th to February 26th.

In the writing categories, for films which had multiple writers, we chose the writer with the highest individual search trend data.

For the Best Picture category, we only included five of the nine nominees due to the fact that Google Trends limits you to comparing just five things at a time. We chose the five we feel to have the best chance of winning.

Data is based on worldwide interest, rather than limited to one specific country or region.


February 26, 2018|

About the Author:

Matt is the leading copywriter for Latitude Digital Marketing, and has worked at the agency for two years. He recently graduated from the DMA's Future Copywriters'